«I’ll be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday, no more excuses». Erdogan the great mediator, peace passes through Istanbul

” We are waiting for a complete and lasting ceasefire, starting tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy . There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will wait for Putin in Turkey on Thursday . Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses”. This is what Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on X. The end of the conflict with Moscow, therefore, seems to pass through Istanbul where the Sultan has taken up the threads again and has re-proposed himself as the great weaver of peace in Ukraine. The announcement was made by the Turkish president himself, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who claims to have received the proposal from Tsar Vladimir Putin on the phone : “The peace talks between Russia and Ukraine will continue in Istanbul ” from May 15 , “starting from where they left off”, in March 2022. “Direct talks” that have not taken place since then and which, in Ankara’s hopes, can lead “to a turning point”, “to a permanent solution” to the conflict.

An “opportunity that must be seized”. An opportunity that Erdogan had been waiting for too long and that allows him to play his cards again as a regional power, but in a geopolitical framework that has changed compared to three years ago. Then, in March, the direct Russian-Ukrainian talks in Antalya failed, certainly premature after only one month of war. But in July, the historic agreement on Black Sea grain was set up in Istanbul (then cancelled by Moscow a year later), under the umbrella of the UN and the US, which allowed the traffic of merchant ships loaded with grain and seeds from Ukrainian ports (and partly also Russian) through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, under Turkish supervision, to be restored, putting an end to a global food crisis. Ankara’s role gained momentum and Turkey mediated several agreements for prisoner exchanges between Kiev and Moscow. Diplomatic channels then dried up.

The cards in the sultan’s hands are substantially the same as they were then, and make him one of the few plausible figures: not entirely neutral, but in balance. Turkey is in fact a member of NATO and for decades has aspired to get closer to, if not join, the European Union . It supplied Ukraine abundantly with weapons and combat drones in the early stages of the war. But Erdogan also has good relations with Moscow : Putin considers him a friend and he has been careful not to adhere to Western sanctions against Russia, continuing to transport Russian gas and oil through his territory. Good neighborly relations with both belligerents, maintained with delicate balancing acts.

Last summer, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Turkish mediation in the conflict was “impossible,” probably riding the wave of slow but inexorable Russian advances on the ground in Donbass and elsewhere. But now, 10 months later, a new actor has entered the scene: Donald Trump, who has thrown all his political weight into this and other wars shaking the globe. And Moscow feels the global spotlight on it, the ball is back in its court. Why not give the friend-rival a chance again? Just another way to save face, and perhaps buy time. But friend Erdogan has shown he can seize his opportunities.

(Online Union)

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